Kent Fire and Rescue Service
Review of Evidence to Support Risk Stratification in Accidental Dwelling Fires 2021

National fire statistics (Home Office Statistical Bulletin 28/20) indicate that for the year 2019/20 UK Fire and Rescue Services (FRS) attended 557,000 incidents; a 3% decrease from 2018/19 (Note that statistics will have been slightly impacted by the COVID-19 lockdown from March 2020, which will likely have a greater impact on the statistics going forward.) Of these incidents, 28% were fires, with remaining incidents made up of false alarms (42%) and non-fire related incidents (31%). These statistics also show that Dwelling Fires and Accidental Dwelling Fires (ADF’s) were down 4% on the previous year, and ADF’s have decreased 10% compared to 2014/15. The picture in Kent is that the number of ADF’s attended in 2019/20 was similar to the previous year (525 vs. 523 in 2018/19), and although there has been a gradual decline since 2014/15 this is smaller than nationally and has begun to plateau recently (Kent Fire and Rescue Service, 2020). Therefore, although there is a general downward trend in all ADF incidents attended nationally, this has not been seen in the Kent figures for ADF’s, thus making ADF’s a priority area for prevention activity by Kent Fire Rescue and Service (KFRS). A number of factors may have influenced the trends in fire incidence, casualties and fatalities, including advances in technology, building/home safety standards, and social trends such as use of cooking equipment, prevalence of smoking in the home, and proportion of homes with working smoke alarms. For a more detailed discussion of these factors see Bryant and Preston, 2017. Despite these wider contextual factors, these figures may also point to the effectiveness of an increased focus on prevention work by the FRS. With the aim of reducing ADF-related fatalities a statutory function of the FRS, and KFRS’s own objective to “Help[ing] everyone to be safer by working towards a future where no one is killed or seriously injured by a fire or other emergency” (KFRS Customer and Corporate Plan 2018-2022), it is important that resources are allocated efficiently. In particular, that continued prevention work effectively supports response by engaging customers in safer behaviours in their own homes. 

The aim of this report is to consider secondary research evidence that helps to apply demographic and behavioural segmentation of the local population based on risk priorities. That is, those who are most at risk of fire fatality, those at risk of becoming injured in a fire, and those who are at risk of experiencing a fire. It is important to note that whilst there are some groups at higher risk of experiencing a dwelling fire, there are others that are not necessarily at higher risk of fire, but should a dwelling fire occur, they are at higher risk of injury or fatality. As such, the report considers where there are specific differences between these groups. 

ADF-related fatalities, casualties, and incidents.

Nationally, the number of ADF-related fatalities recorded in 2019/20 was the lowest on record since 1981/82, at 243 fatalities. Of these 243 fatalities 82% were in dwelling fires, and 46% (105 fatalities) were people aged over 65 years (Home Office Statistical Bulletin 28/20). In Kent, the number of fatalities in accidental fires remained similar over time (5 in 2019/20 vs. 6 in 2018/19) (KFRS, 2020). Since the number of ADF-related fatalities remains very small, it is virtually impossible to perform predictive analysis using these figures. It is therefore necessary to consider ADF-related casualties or injuries, as well as fire incidents (where no casualty/injury or fatality is recorded) in order to form a picture of who is at risk, and why. Nationally, ADF-related casualties represent over 5,000 incidents, and locally around 200 for the year 2019/20, this is against the national number of 557,000 incidents, and the Kent total of 38,255 for 2019/20, of which 2,404 were accidental fires, and 525 ADF’s.